Projected MLB Playoff Odds Reveal Several Shocking Surprises

February 19, 2026

We're still about six weeks away from Opening Day, but most teams have pretty much completed their offseason moves in preparation for the 2026 season. Knowing generally how rosters will be constructed, MLB Playoff Odds are now starting to take shape, per FanGraphs. 

And there are a few stunning—no, make that shocking—surprises to take note of. Starting with the projection that the defending American League champion Toronto Blue Jays have only the 5th-best odds of making the 2026 postseason in the AL, and are only the 3rd-most likely team in their own division. 

According to the FanGraphs rankings, the Jays have only a 60.1% chance of making the playoffs, while the Boston Red Sox are at 60.6% and the New York Yankees are way out ahead of them both at 69%. The Seattle Mariners, who came oh-so-close to upending the Blue Jays in the ALCS, are projected as the most likely to make the postseason in the AL, far ahead of the pack at 79.2%, while the Detroit Tigers are second at 72.1% with their big winter addition of Framber Valdez. 

Braves have surprising 2nd-best odds in NL to make playoffs

In the National League, no one will be surprised to learn that the Los Angeles Dodgers are projected at a 99% likelihood to make it to October. 

But in a shocking anomaly, the perennial basement-dwelling Pittsburgh Pirates, after a strong offseason, actually have higher odds at this point than the Milwaukee Brewers—the team that won 97 games last season and had the best regular-season record in the majors. Wait, what? The Pirates are posted with the 6th-best odds in the NL at 43%, while the Brew Crew are shockingly listed at 37.4%.

Another bit of a surprise finds the Atlanta Braves, who failed to make the postseason in 2025, with the second-highest odds in the NL, at 84.1%.

The New York Mets' offseason started horribly, losing closer Edwin Diaz and their big power bat Pete Alonso. But they bounced back big time in recent weeks with the trades for Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr., along with, of course, the big splashy free agent signing of Bo Bichette. That was all enough to launch them into the 3rd-highest odds to reach the NL postseason, at 79.3%. They're followed by the Philadelphia Phillies (68.2%) and Chicago Cubs (62.6%). 

These odds will naturally change after the season gets underway, and injuries, breakouts and other performances start to take shape. 

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