Top 5 MLB Players With Better Than 50% Odds To Be Traded

August 02, 2026 , , , , , ,
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While names like Mason Miller, CJ Abrams, George Kirby, Josh Hader and 

Adley Rutschman make for interesting rumors, plugged-in insiders Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN do not give them good odds to be moved by Monday's 6pm ET deadline. 

But they do list several very notable players with odds of greater than 50% to be traded. 
Let's go through the Top 5 Most Likely To Be Dealt:

1. Luis Arraez, INF, San Francisco Giants, 95%

The three-time batting champ is in demand around the league, as he's having another excellent season with the bat, leading the majors with a .328 average, while posting an .810 OPS. There are a number of teams linked to Arraez, with the focus being on the three contenders in the AL East. 

2. Freddy Peralta, SP, NY Mets, 95%

It's been a disastrous year in the Big Apple for Peralta, and heading into free agency, he would love a fresh start on a contender to turn his season around. There are a number of starting-pitching-needy teams interested, including a very familiar one.  

3. Clay Holmes, RHP, New York Mets, 90%

Another Mets starter almost certainly on the way out, Holmes will also become a free agent at year's end, as he will decline his $12M option to hit the open market for a much bigger payday. He's missed two months with a broken leg, but is expected back this coming week, and has posted a 2.39 ERA this season. 

"He has shot up this list because teams' interest in him runs deep -- and the only reason he's not higher than 90% to go is due to the possibility of him remaining in New York on a contract extension," Passan writes.

4. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, 75%

Gausman doesn't want to leave Toronto, calling his signing with the Blue Jays five years ago "the best decision I've ever made." But as one of the best starters in baseball over the course of that contract, and a legit playoff performer, teams are clamoring to get him, and the Jays would be silly not to recoup some assets here. There's always a chance he could re-sign with Toronto once again as a free agent this offseason.

5. Luke Weaver, RHP, New York Mets, 70%

Yes, another Mets pitcher that should be on the move. Weaver has put up sensational numbers as a high-leverage reliever this season, with a 1.88 ERA and 0.84 WHIP while holding batters to a .166 average. Relievers are always a top draw at the deadline, and Weaver looks like the highest-impact one that will be dealt. 

"He can close. He can handle the seventh inning. He can get out righties and lefties. He's exactly what teams are seeking this time of year," Passan & McDaniel wrote. 

Honorable mentions:

  • Casey Mize, SP, Detroit Tigers, 60%
  • Foster Griffin, LHP, Washington Nationals, 55%
  • Ryan Jeffers, C, Minnesota Twins, 50%
  • George Kirby, SP, Seattle Mariners, 50%

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