MLB Rumors: Padres' Ace Expected to Make Tough Decision

April 14, 2026
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta walks off the field during 2026 game.

Nick Pivetta hasn't even made it through April without a scare, and already the rest of the league is treating his time in San Diego as a rental. 

According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, rival general managers are collectively counting on Pivetta to opt out of his contract this winter, with one framing it as a straightforward financial decision: he signed a four-year, $55 million deal with the Padres in February 2025 that was structured heavily in San Diego's favor, paying him just $23 million across the first two seasons. 

The remaining two years are worth $32 million, which is a number that won't come close to what he can get on the open market if he pitches anything like he did in 2025. 

Then on Sunday, Pivetta was pulled from his start against the Colorado Rockies in the fourth inning with right elbow stiffness, his velocity ticking down before manager Craig Stammen walked out to get him. 

The Padres said imaging could be in play depending on how Pivetta responds. It is, suddenly, a more complicated situation than it was 48 hours ago.

The Contract Math Is the Story

Pivetta's deal was always tilted toward the team. 

The structure, a $3 million signing bonus, just $1 million in 2025 base salary, followed by $19 million in 2026, was the kind of arrangement a pitcher with something to prove accepts when his market leverage is uncertain. 

Pivetta had something to prove. He delivered: 31 starts, a 2.87 ERA, a 190-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first year in San Diego. 

The Padres got an ace-level performance for an ace's salary only in year two. The opt-outs after 2026 and 2027 were written into the deal precisely for this scenario. 

His 2026 season is off to a rockier start, a 5.54 ERA through three appearances, but early-April numbers on a pitcher of Pivetta's caliber tend to smooth out, and the league's front offices clearly aren't spooked by them. 

What they are watching, now, is that elbow.

What Happens If He Walks

Pivetta will turn 33 in February, squarely within the range where starting pitchers still command premium free-agent dollars if their stuff is intact. 

The 2027 pitching market is already shaping up to be thin on established starters, which works in his favor. For San Diego, the math cuts both ways: they either watch a No. 1 starter leave for nothing after the season, or they face the prospect of offering a competing contract to keep a pitcher who just exited with elbow stiffness on his 46th pitch of the year. 

Since the 2023 season, Pivetta holds a 3.65 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, with 569 strikeouts across 486 innings and 100 appearances (77 starts).

Photo Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

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